You Can't Turn MAGA Against Trump

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The big hot topic in politics is whether Donald Trump’s refusal to release the FBI’s files on Jeffrey Epstein has created the first real, lasting rift between Trump and his MAGA base. At a glance, it seems like it has: MAGA is in a state of some discord, with many Trump supporters expressing their concerns about him, and Trump lashing out at them in return.

There’s no doubt that this is all very unusual. At this point it’s an ironclad rule that Trump’s grip on his base is unshakeable. What makes this unique is that for many MAGA types, the Epstein case is a microcosm of their entire politics. Epstein isn’t just a criminal, or even just a pedophile, he’s a symbol of the corrupt, degenerate gentry that they believe Trump is fighting against. Trump has long nurtured his support among QAnon and similar conspiracists who believe that the world is run by a pedophilic cabal of liberal elites. His actions haven’t just upset them, they’ve turned their worldview on its head.

All that said, I’m skeptical that Trump’s more conspiratorial base will abandon him. To understand why, first it’s important to understand that the people on the right who believe that they are in an existential struggle against a murderous pedophile illuminati do not actually care about child sex abuse.

The actual reason that powerful people and institutions can engage in the abuse of children without consequence is that they are insulated by hierarchies of money, influence, and power, the existence of which right-wingers defend as a matter of principle. This is why the most notable locus of institutionalized child sex abuse - the church - plays only an ancillary role in the right-wing’s conspiracism. To actually tackle the issue would involve dismantling the social, political, and economic power structures that undergird it, which the right has no interest in doing.

Conspiracy theories are rarely about the things they claim to be about. They are, instead, a mode of self-affirmation; reassurance that you are privy to secret knowledge and that there is a hidden order behind the complexity of modern life. The point of this particular conspiracy theory isn’t that there’s a powerful cabal of murderous pedophiles that must be stopped. The point of the theory is to justify the pre-existing worldview of the people who believe it: that their enemies are irredeemably evil and that they are unequivocally good.

The theory, in other words, is less important than the conspiracy. The conspiracy is a black box that serves whatever narrative purpose the conspiracist wants. I recently heard Will Sommer, who wrote a book about QAnon, tell the story of a believer who thought that the global elite had been suppressing the cure for cancer, and that their mass arrest would therefore lead to her own cancer being cured. The conspiracy isn’t predicated in any fact, it’s a psychological mechanism to placate and reassure the believer.

Trump’s problem right now is that by preventing the release of the Epstein files, he’s contradicted one the conspiratorial right’s dominant narratives: that he is a savior figure prepared to shine a light on our depraved elite, which will in turn vindicate the American right as a force for moral good and cast the left away for a generation. 

But contrary evidence hasn’t stopped Trump’s base in the past. He’s already been photographed with Epstein and is on the record describing Epstein as a friend, something that his followers will describe as either an irrelevant coincidence or a part of the plan to ensnare Epstein. This happens for the same reason that many flat earthers ignore experiments that prove the Earth is round. The real reason they believe in an Epstein conspiracy isn’t particularly related to the details of the case, just like the real reason some people believe the world is flat isn’t particularly related to the shape of the Earth.

All of this to say that the reason I’m skeptical that factual revelations about Donald Trump’s ties to Epstein will shake MAGA’s commitment to Trump is because that commitment is not predicated on facts. Ironically, the more facts come out, the more the base lines up behind him.

A few days ago, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had written Epstein a cheeky little note for his 50th birthday in 2003. At this point, MAGA had been in a state of civil war for a few days. Rather than exacerbate tensions, the report seemed to cause MAGA to circle the wagons. Megyn Kelly, after spending days questioning the administration’s motives, immediately started questioning the WSJ reporting. Matt Walsh, who the day before the story was published said the MAGA base “won’t just drop” the story, hasn’t mentioned it since except to cast doubt on the story’s veracity. 

What happened? The case that Trump and Epstein were on good terms is now objectively stronger, which you might think would turn Trump’s base against him even more. But that misunderstands their motivations. The right’s Epstein conspiracism is a vessel through which they vindicate their allies and demonize their enemies. The WSJ story reminded them who their enemies really are. 

Trump has capitalized on that momentum by shifting the conversation to allegations that Barack Obama conspired against him, a story that the faithful have taken to with some fervor.

If and when more details about Trump’s connections with Epstein come out, my guess is that his supporters will coalesce around him further. Their conspiracism alters their reality, not the other way around.

This isn’t to say that this won’t hurt Trump at all. Not every Trump supporter's brain operates by this framework. It’s possible that this will erode his support among the low-trust, low-information voters who aren’t particularly partisan but gravitated toward him in 2024. But if you’re holding out hope that his base will abandon him, you’re wasting your time.

I don’t know exactly what the truth of Epstein’s case is, but I know that whatever comes out will tell a tale as old as time: money and favor, used by powerful people to prey on the weak and vulnerable. Reactionaries will line up on the side of power, as they always do. And then they will fall back into conspiracy, because reality is complex and upsetting, and the conspiracy is whatever they want it to be.