Can The Federalist Society Survive Donald Trump?

Last week a federal court briefly halted the implementation of Donald Trump’s tariff regime, claiming it exceeded his statutory authority. The panel of judges included Timothy Reif, who was appointed by Trump and apparently recommended to him by the Federalist Society, the conservative legal movement’s flagship organization.

This isn’t the first time one of his own judges has ruled against him. Just a month ago a Trump appointee held that he lacked the authority to deport Venezuelan migrants under the Alien Enemies Act. Trump judges blocked his efforts to cut funding to schools who engage in “DEI.” It seems Trump has finally had enough. Following the court’s tariff decision, he shared his displeasure on Truth Social. He called Leonard Leo, the former head of the Federalist Society, a “sleazebag” who “probably hates America.” Broken clocks, I suppose.

Stephen Miller followed up by announcing that the administration would no longer look to the Federalist Society for advice on judicial appointments. In the future it’s likely they will partner with groups like America First Legal, Miller’s own MAGA-centric organization, which prefers pure hacks like Aileen Cannon (who presided over Trump’s classified documents case) to the Federalist Society’s base of jurisprudentialist ideologues.

Trump’s break with the Federalist Society is notable for a few reasons. Back in 2016, Trump publicly committed to letting the Federalist Society choose his judicial appointments. At the time, many ideological conservatives were concerned about Trump’s bona fides – he was, after all, a former Democrat, squishy on key issues like abortion and lacking any real ideological commitments. So Trump offered a trade: they line up behind him, and he’ll let them pick the judges. 

That handshake agreement was one of the defining features of Trump’s first term. While Trump puttered along, hamstrung by a muddled agenda and a lack of institutional allies, the Federalist Society seeded the federal judiciary with ideologues, including three members of the Supreme Court. It wasn’t uncommon to hear more “moderate” conservatives who disliked Trump’s aesthetics say that while they weren’t big fans of his, they appreciated what he had done with the courts.

But now the dynamics of Republican politics have changed. There’s no Republican establishment for Trump to negotiate with, because he has subsumed it entirely. The Federalist Society, in other words, no longer has anything to trade. Whatever inroads into the party establishment they could once offer him are irrelevant now. 

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